What’s in Bloom – Third Week of March 2024

By Anna Nehrbas on March 22, 2024

Weekly data-driven insights on the markets and economy

1. Winning Day
   The S&P 500 rose 0.7% on Thursday, and both the Nasdaq and Dow Jones rose 0.8%. Technology shares outperformed, following a winning day on Wall Street that saw the S&P 500 break above 5,200 for the first time.[i]
2. Yield Dip Treasury yields fell Thursday on the heels of the Fed’s interest rate decision. Traders bet that the Fed’s forecasts increase the likelihood of rate cuts in the summer. The 10-year Treasury dipped nearly 2 bps to 4.26%, and the 2-year fell less than 1 bp to 4.61%.[ii]
3. Highly Rated
   The Federal Reserve announced Wednesday that it will keep its benchmark borrowing rate in a range between 5.25-5.5%. The Fed also priced in three 25 bps rate cuts by the end of the year, which would mark the first reductions since March 2020. The current federal funds rate is the highest in more than 23 years. Futures markets were pricing in a nearly 75% probability that the first cut comes at the June meeting.[iii]
4. Big Deal
   President Joe Biden and congressional leaders announced the deal to fund the rest of the federal government through September. Now, the House and Senate are working to finalize the bill. Legislation approved earlier in March provided funding for about 30% of the federal government. Disagreement over border spending blocked the remaining 70% from approval earlier this month, but Democrats and Republicans reached agreement late Monday. The bill is expected to be about $1 trillion.[iv]
5. Home Sweet Home
   A real estate lawsuit which claimed policies have forced people to pay artificially inflated costs to sell their homes led the National Association of Realtors (NAR) to do away with these policies, which set agent commissions. The NAR also agreed to pay $418 million to help compensate home sellers across the U.S. Currently, agents working with a buyer and seller typically split a commission of around 5% to 6% that’s paid by the seller. The rule changes, set to go into effect mid-July, would enable sellers and buyers to negotiate lower agent commissions.[v]
6. Flash Crash Bitcoin saw a brief flash crash down to $8,900 earlier this week as an anonymous trader sold more than $55 million worth (over 400 bitcoin). Within a few minutes of the sell orders, the bitcoin price reached its lowest point since 2020, but quickly recovered to $67,000. Despite gaining traction on Wall Street, bitcoin and the nature of crypto markets remains volatile.[vi]
7. FAFSA Submissions Drop Due to problems with Free Application for Federal Student Aid (FAFSA) submissions, the Department of Education is on track to see 2.8 million fewer FAFSAs submitted this year, a 19% decrease. Many high school seniors and their families have been discouraged from completing an application. As of March 8, only 31% of the high school class of 2024 had completed the FAFSA, 33% less than a year ago. This could cause a sharp decline in college enrollment in the fall.[vii]
8. March Madness
   The NCAA distributes a portion of its revenue to member conferences based on how their schools do in the men’s basketball tournament. Those payments are determined by “units,” which are earned for each game a school plays. Each of the 132 units are worth about $2 million. That amounts to $264 million up for grabs.[viii]
   
   

• [i] Subin, Samantha and Alex Harring, “Stocks rise as Wall Street builds on record-setting run: Live updates,” CNBC, March 21, 2024, https://www.cnbc.com/2024/03/20/stock-market-today-live-updates.html. Accessed March 21, 2024.
• [ii] Chisholm, Jamie, “Treasury yields dip after Powell comments bolster hopes for June rate cut,” Morningstar, March 21, 2024, https://www.morningstar.com/news/marketwatch/20240321227/treasury-yields-dip-after-powell-comments-bolster-hopes-for-june-rate-cut. Accessed March 21, 2024.
• [iii] Cox, Jeff, “Fed holds rates steady and maintains three cuts coming sometime this year,” CNBC, March 20, 2024, https://www.cnbc.com/2024/03/20/fed-meeting-march-2024-.html. Accessed March 21, 2024.
• [iv] Moyer, Liz, “Congress Is Rushing Again to Avoid a Shutdown After Spending Deal,” Barron’s, March 19, 2024, https://www.barrons.com/articles/congress-races-avoid-shutdown-deal-422dc30d. Accessed March 21, 2024.
• [v] Viega, Alex, “Real estate lawsuit settlement upends decadeslong policies that helped set agent commissions,” Yahoo!Finance, March 15, 2024, https://finance.yahoo.com/news/national-association-realtors-pay-418-163143041.html. Accessed March 21, 2024.
• [vi] Parys, Joe, “Bitcoin price flash crashes to $8,900 following $55 million BitMEX orders,” TheStreet, March 19, 2024, https://www.thestreet.com/crypto/markets/bitcoin-price-crashes-to-8900-following-55-million-orders. Accessed March 21, 2024.
• [vii] Dickler, Jessica, “FAFSA ‘fiasco’ could cause decline in the number of students going to college, experts say,” CNBC, March 19, 2024, https://www.cnbc.com/2024/03/19/fafsa-fiasco-may-result-in-fewer-students-going-to-college.html. Accessed March 21, 2024.
• [viii] Romboy, Dennis, “How much do teams get for making the NCAA Tournament,” Deseret News, March 18, 2024, https://www.deseret.com/sports/2024/03/18/march-madness-ncaa-tournament-teams-money/. Accessed March 21, 2024.